NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
521
FXUS61 KCAR 081129
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
629 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 6:29AM UPDATE...12z TAF UPDATE. See below. Increased cloud
coverage for this afternoon into the overnight hours. Hi-res
guidance indicating a low to mid level deck developing this
afternoon with the NW winds off the still open St. Lawrence
seaway. It is also possible for some flurries to develop with
these clouds and have added flurry mentions for this afternoon
then again tonight. Better chance of scattered flurries
tonight when moisture increases in the boundary layer trapped
under the inversion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold Arctic air and gusty winds will result in frigid wind
chills tonight into Sunday morning.
-Increasing chances for some snow Tuesday night with possible
impacts to the Wednesday morning commute.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold Arctic air and gusty winds will result in
frigid wind chills tonight into Sunday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Snow showers this morning associated with deepening 500mb low
to our south is bringing colder air into Maine. Cold air
advection has been a little slow to start but expecting
temperatures to continue to fall through the morning hours.
Winds are increasing across the area as surface low pressure
deepens well to our south-southeast. The airmass that originated
from the North Pole back on Jan 28-31st will hang somewhat back
to the west into tomorrow but a piece of the coldest part is
over the western half of the CWA today. Temperatures bottom out
in the single digits below zero this morning from the Moosehead
Region northward to the St. John Valley with temps ranging 0-5F
across the rest of the north. Bangor Region to Downeast bottoms
out 5-10F.
Winds will increase and gust 20-30mph this morning as the
pressure gradient tightens between the deepening low SE of the
area and 1037mb surface high building in from Ontario. Winds at
the top of the mix layer this morning (approx 2kft) is in the
25-35kt range so combining the temps and winds wind chills will
be below zero for most areas. 5-10 degrees below zero Downeast,
10-15 below zero for Bangor Region to Houlton to Caribou.
Moosehead Region to North Woods and St. John Valley looking at
wind chills of 20 to 25 below zero. Cold Weather Advisory
remains in effect for N. Somerset County where wind chills will
reach criteria of -25F. Partly to mostly sunny today, did raise
temps a couple degrees with slightly warmer airmass in place on
the east side of the shortwave. Highs in the teens north, 9-12F
for Moosehead Region and 20-25F for Bangor Region to Downeast
Coast. Winds will remain gusty and trended the winds closer to
the NBM75th-NBM90th percentile.
Tonight once again will need to monitor the trends in temps and
winds for the Moosehead Region and N. Somerset about the
possibility of Cold Weather Advisory headlines. Air temperatures
will drop back -10F to -5F for the North Woods and Moosehead
Region with -5F to +5F in most other locations in the CWA except
around +10F at the shoreline. Watching the headlines needs
because winds will remain breezy 10-15mph gusting 20-30mph at
times. Latest thinking is wind chills dip to -27F to -23F range
but those aren`t fully widespread around Moosehead. Elsewhere
winds chills of 10 to 20 below zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing chances for some snow Tuesday night
with possible impacts to the Wednesday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure approaches from Ontario province Tuesday and then
tracks southeast off the coast of Maine Wednesday morning. Warm
advection pattern in advance of the system will result in snow
overspreading the region Tuesday night. The snow is expected
reach on a line from Greenville to Bangor by around midnight and
then the route one corridor from Houlton to Caribou between 3
am and 6 am Wednesday morning. There was enough model consensus
to increase pops to likley across much of the forecast area
later Tuesday night. As the low exits to the east of the coast
to the south of Nova Scotia during Wednesday, a trof will extend
back to the west. This will serve as the focus for continued
snow during the day on Wednesday. The snow should gradually
diminish later Wednesday and Wednesday night, although there
may be the continued threat of scattered snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
Today and Tonight...VFR this morning except MVFR at FVE.
Expecting a period of VFR at the northern terms this morning
becoming low end VFR to MVFR this afternoon. Cannot rule out
brief flurries so added VCSH to these northern terms. Low end
VFR or MVFR expected through tonight into the early AM hours of
Monday. Southern terms expect VFR today into tonight. Area wide
winds NW 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt. LLWS likely this evening into
early Monday AM.
Monday...VFR. NW winds 5-15kt gusting up to 25kt.
Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night VFR early, then MVFR or lower in developing snow.
Wednesday...MVFR or lower in snow.
Wednesday night amd Thursday...VFR/MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale Warning remains in effect through midnight tonight for the
Coastal Waters. N winds 20-30kt and gusts up to 40kt. Seas
3-6ft. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through midnight
tonight for the Intra-Coastal Waters. N winds 15-20kt gusting up
to 30kt and seas 2-4ft. A Freezing Spray Advisory remains in
effect through 10AM EST Monday for all of the waters out to
25nm. Moderate accumulation of freezing spray likely. Freezing
spray may render mechanical and electronic components
inoperative. Ice accretion on decks and superstructures may
result in some loss of stability. Sea surface water temperatures
from the Downeast Coast out 25nm range 36-41F including
Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays. Expecting winds to remain at
SCA levels from early Monday morning through Tuesday AM and
light freezing spray to continue.
SCA conditions are possible Monday night otherwise winds/seas
below SCA levels through mid week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050-051.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TWD/JS
AVIATION...TWD/JS
MARINE...TWD/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
