NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
632
FXUS61 KCAR 031830
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
130 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Expected precipitation over northern areas has increased
slightly. Up to 1 inch is now possible.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain continues through Wednesday morning. Some drought
relief is possible across Northern Maine with amounts up to 1
inch.
2) Additional rainfall expected Thursday into the weekend,
though exact timing and amounts are still uncertain. The
rainfall could provide some drought relief.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Rain continues through Wednesday morning. Some drought
relief is possible across Northern Maine with amounts up to 1
inch.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A stationary front is currently stalled over the area resulting
in light rain over much of central Maine. Light rain is expected
to continue through tonight and become more steady as a northern
stream shortwave trough approaches from the west, providing
additional lift along the boundary as it pushes north as a warm
front through Wednesday. Precipitation should end early tomorrow
morning in southern areas but may linger through the early
afternoon in far northern Maine.
The greatest precipitation amounts are expected to be in
northern Maine where totals should approach 1 inch in
correlation with where the greatest forcing associated with the
northern stream trough will be. Progressively lesser amounts
further south with only around 0.1 inches in the Bangor and
Downeast areas. Some limited drought relief is expected over
northern areas but will not be enough to end the significant
deficit.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Additional rainfall expected Thursday into the weekend, though
exact timing and amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could
provide some drought relief.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will be located southeast of the Gulf of Maine
Thursday while an occluded front crosses the region. At the same
time, low pressure will move northeast from Great Lakes along a
cold front. The return flow between the high and occluded front
will help draw moisture northward across the region with
precipitable water values increasing to 1.25 to 1.50 inches.
Expect a chance of rain across mostly northern and western
portions of the forecast area Thursday. The cold front will
approach the Saint Lawrence Valley Thursday night. A slight
chance/chance of rain or showers will linger Thursday night. An
upper low approaches from the Great Lakes Friday helping support
a developing coastal low, though the exact location of the
developing low is still uncertain. The better chances of rain
later Friday will occur across Downeast area. The upper/surface
lows should approach Friday night. Steadier rain should begin
to expand northward across the region Friday night. The surface
low lifts across the region Saturday into Saturday night with
the area of rain lifting across the forecast area. The low lifts
north of the forecast area Sunday. Showers wrapping around the
low could persist across the region Sunday. Precipitation totals
Thursday through Sunday remain uncertain dependent on the track
and evolution of the system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through Tonight...Generally MVFR this afternoon, decreasing to
IFR 22-00z tonight in light rain. 30% chance of LIFR conditions,
greatest at northern terminals. Light S/SE winds tonight around
5 kts southern terminals and 5 to 10 kts northern terminals.
Some LLWS cannot be ruled out late but too low confidence to
include in TAF.
Wednesday...Quick improvement to VFR by about 14z at southern
terminals in the morning while northern terminals remain IFR
until late morning, becoming MVFR early afternoon. Light rain
persists into the early afternoon. SW winds 5 to 10 kts. Some LLWS
cannot be ruled out early but too low confidence to include in
TAF.
Wednesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of rain.
South/southeast winds3 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots. Low level wind shear possible.
Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. A slight chance/chance
of rain or showers. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Low
level wind shear possible.
Friday...MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain, particularly Downeast.
South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday night...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. Rain tapering to
showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of rain showers. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest/south 10 to 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
From tonight through Wednesday night, sustained winds should
generally be 15kt or less and seas 4 ft or less over all waters.
SE winds tonight become SW Wednesday.
Small craft advisory conditions are possible later Thursday into
Thursday night. A chance of rain Thursday night, then rain
Friday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SM/CN
AVIATION...SM/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
