NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
970
FXUS61 KGYX 031907
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
207 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A warm front lifts through the region bringing both chances
for very light rain this evening and overnight and near-record
warm temperatures Wednesday.
2. A widespread soaking rainfall is possible for the late week
into the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A warm front remains draped across the forecast area this
afternoon. Along and north of the boundary some very light rain
continues. I do not anticipate much, generally less than a tenth
of an inch, but the dampness and cloud cover will help to
mitigate any new wildfire threat and allow crews to catch up
with any ongoing fires.
As the front continues to drift north into Wed some very warm
air is forecast locally. Model guidance is pushing the 925 mb
temp forecast into the +16 or +17C range. This is good enough
for high temps at least into the mid 70s. This is at least 20
degrees above normal and will be pushing record values, which
can be found below in the Climate section.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Beginning Wed the upper low over the Midwest will begin to open
up and shear out to the northeast. This will tend to leave
behind the frontal boundary that will eventually slow to a crawl
as it nears the East Coast. At the same time Thu into Fri a
northern stream shortwave is forecast to drop into the Great
Lakes and help close off another upper low. This will help keep
the frontal boundary locked in place and help low pressure to
develop along that front. This is forecast to zip north and
bring a pretty solid rainfall event to areas in the vicinity.
The maine question will be where this front stalls. As it stands
right now that looks pretty close to our coastline. The chances
for rain over the eastern half of the forecast area are pretty
high, and probabilities over at least an inch of QPF are also
fairly high. ECMWF EPS guidance continues to trend wetter, as
does the GEFS even though it is slightly drier than its European
counterpart. NBM PoP forecast looks pretty good for this range,
especially since there is some timing uncertainty even if it
does look like rain along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through Wednesday: Generally VFR conditions expected despite
some light rain moving into the forecast area. In the mtns some
brief MVFR CIGs are possible this evening, but confidence is too
low to include in the TAFs at this time. Any rain or showers
looks like enough to avoid reducing VIS. Along the western
Maine coast some low CIGs may begin to advect in off the Gulf of
Maine this evening and overnight. RKD looks to have a period of
IFR conditions thru sunrise, while AUG and PWM may be just far
enough away to escape restrictions. Conditions return to
widespread VFR Wed.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR conditions expected. Some light rain or showers
possible.
Friday-Saturday: Rain likely for eastern half of the forecast
area. MVFR or lower conditions develop Fri and linger thru Sat.
Sunday: Returning to VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru
the period. One window to watch will be late this week as low
pressure develops along a stalled frontal boundary and zips
northward along it. If the front is able to stall slightly
farther west, that may introduce some gusty southerly winds and
building seas for some of our waters east of Port Clyde.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal for parts of
the forecast area, and are expected to approach daily records.
The records for the local climate stations for November 4th are
as follows:
PWM: 74 set in 1987
CON: 75 set in 1987
AUG: 74 set in 1990
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Legro
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
